Taking Stock - 11 June 2026

Edward Lee writes:

CRITICAL minerals and strategic resources are fast becoming one of New Zealand’s biggest opportunities.

New Zealand has spent many years talking about productivity, exports, regional development and building a stronger economy. Governments, business leaders and economists return to these themes often, but far less attention is given to the practical question of where future growth will actually come from.

For a country of five million people, economic growth is ultimately built on producing goods and services that the rest of the world is willing to pay for.

Historically, New Zealand has achieved this through agriculture, tourism, retail, forestry, technology and services, and now, another sector is attracting renewed global attention - mining and strategic resources.

Around 70% of New Zealand's economy is made up of service industries. Productive sectors such as agriculture, forestry, fishing, manufacturing and resource extraction account for a much smaller share of GDP, despite generating a significant proportion of the country's export earnings.

Recently, I spent time with management from both Tāiko Critical Minerals and Rua Gold. I have also continued to follow developments at Santana Minerals, which many of our clients have invested alongside us over recent years.

These companies all operate in different commodity markets and have different development pathways, but together they highlight something increasingly clear in that the world is changing rapidly, and secure access to raw materials is becoming strategically important again.

For decades, globalisation encouraged countries to rely on international supply chains, with an assumption that raw materials, components and finished products would always be available when needed.

That assumption is now being challenged by trade tensions, war, export controls, energy security concerns and deteriorating relationships between major powers. The result is that minerals, mining and resource security have returned to the centre of economic discussions.

Critical minerals feed modern economies through energy systems, electronics, industrial manufacturing, infrastructure, telecommunications, transport networks and defence capability. Everything from electric vehicles and batteries through to smartphones, semiconductors, solar panels, data centres and military equipment require materials that must come from somewhere.

Remember, everything around us has either been mined or grown, making resource extraction one of the most essential parts of every modern economy. Whether it is timber, coal, iron ore, gold or rare earth minerals, modern societies depend on raw materials.

New Zealand cannot afford to be left behind. If critical minerals become harder to source while demand continues to rise, basic economics suggests prices will increase and countries with secure supply will be in a stronger position.

The idea that New Zealand should avoid developing its own resources, rely on other countries to do the mining, pay whatever prices global markets demand, and forgo the jobs, taxes and royalties that responsible mining can create, simply leaves the country further behind.

China recognised the strategic importance of critical minerals earlier than most countries. Over many years it built influence across mining, refining, financing and processing, with processing and separation capacity often becoming the more important part of the supply chain.

In several commodity markets, Chinese producers have also been prepared to increase supply aggressively when competing projects outside China were attempting to establish themselves. This placed pressure on prices, made financing more difficult and reinforced China’s dominance across many mineral supply chains.

Investors who have followed lithium, rare earths, antimony or other specialty mineral markets will recognise this pattern.

Projects outside China can spend years drilling, consenting, modelling economics and raising capital, only to face sharp price falls just as they approach development.

Governments increasingly describe critical minerals as strategically important, but projects do not get built from supportive speeches. If governments genuinely want diversified supply chains, there is a reasonable argument that strategically important projects may require greater government support.

That may mean subsidies or direct ownership, or it may involve debt facilities, purchasing commitments, faster consenting, strategic investment, offtake agreements or mechanisms that reduce exposure to market distortions.

The New Zealand government attempted to modernise our outdated consenting system by introducing legislation to help speed up the process, however the Fast-Track process may need to be renamed, as it certainly isn’t fast.

There has been some discussion that “consented projects which go through this new legislation will get reversed”. However, in practice, this would be highly unlikely.

Labour, National, ACT and New Zealand First, representing the overwhelming majority of Parliament, have all indicated that companies already within the Fast-Track process, provided applications have been lodged before the election, would continue progressing through that process.

This has created a rush by companies to get applications lodged before the election.

If an election resulted in a change of government, new applications would likely be halted while any incoming government negotiated potential changes to Fast-Track legislation but companies already within the process are likely to be in a materially stronger position than those still preparing applications.

This broader backdrop helps explain why companies such as Tāiko Critical Minerals are beginning to attract attention.

Tāiko’s Barrytown project sits on the West Coast and focuses on mineral sands containing products including ilmenite, garnet, zircon and rare earth-bearing minerals.

Tāiko has now lodged its substantive Fast-Track application, representing another step forward in the project's development pathway.

While regulatory approvals are never guaranteed, the project is continuing to progress through the various stages required before development decisions can ultimately be made.

Although mining often creates images of deep underground operations or massive open pits, this project is materially different. It is a relatively shallow mineral sands operation, on farm land, with average mining depths around six metres and maximum depths of approximately nine metres.

Lower mining depths reduce extraction complexity, simplify rehabilitation planning and lower operational risk compared with many traditional mining developments.

The company has indicated that the disturbed mining footprint at any one time would only be approximately four hectares, with rehabilitation occurring progressively as mining advances.

The shallow nature of the deposit also allows the resource to be drilled and understood in far greater detail than many deeper mining projects. Over 270 drill holes have been completed, with drilling on 100 metre lines at 30 metre hole spacing, and samples collected at one metre intervals.

This provides a level of resource definition that is unusual for many early-stage mining projects and provides investors with greater confidence that the company is working with a well-tested and well-understood resource.

The company already holds resource consent for the initial mining area and has consent for a mineral separation plant near Rapahoe.

It is also worth noting that the initial mining area and mineral separation plant were consented through the traditional Resource Management Act process, including public submissions, hearings and Environment Court proceedings.

The Fast-track application relates primarily to extending the resource area and mine life rather than creating an entirely new project from the beginning.

The project's most distinctive feature is its grade. Barrytown contains one of the highest global in-situ valuable heavy mineral grades, reportedly almost five times higher than many comparable mineral sands projects internationally.

Many mining projects are promoted on size. However, in practice, it is often grade that determines whether a project becomes commercially attractive. Higher grades mean less material must be mined, transported and processed to achieve the same production outcome. The result is lower capital requirements, lower operating costs, a smaller disturbed footprint and faster progressive rehabilitation.

Combined with shallow mining depths, extensive drilling and an already well-advanced consenting pathway, it is not difficult to see why the project has attracted international attention.

Another interesting part of Tāiko’s approach is its focus on processing.

Historically, many mineral sands projects export mixed concentrate offshore. Once exported, overseas processors separate the minerals, refine them and capture much of the economic value.

Rather than shipping this mixed concentrate offshore, Tāiko intends to separate the individual minerals here in New Zealand before sale. This should improve pricing outcomes, reduce dependence on overseas processors and allow more of the economic value to be retained locally.

If New Zealand is going to develop natural resources, thinking carefully about where value is created is important.

Another example of how quickly this environment is changing is Santana Minerals.

Mining projects do not succeed on geology alone. As projects start to mature, financing, permitting, technical studies, environmental management, engineering design and political certainty become increasingly important.

Santana’s Bendigo-Ophir project has now moved materially further through the Fast-track process than many investors may realise. The statutory decision date remains 29 October 2026, with a draft decision expected at least six weeks beforehand.

Public Fast-track documents now include more than 30 Expert Panel minutes, multiple technical conferences, site visits, specialist evidence, legal submissions and concurrent hearings across disciplines including groundwater, planning, ecology, economics, transport, landscape, geotechnical engineering and environmental management.

The scale of this process highlights how much the conversation has shifted. The focus increasingly appears to be on management plans, consent conditions, groundwater work and technical refinements rather than whether there is a project at all.

Santana has recently been asked to provide updated management plans and proposed consent conditions by 22 June.

None of this suggests approval is guaranteed, but we remain hopeful. If this application were declined, it would raise broader questions about New Zealand’s ability to attract capital into large-scale resource developments.

Environmental opposition will always exist, with debate around water, landscape effects, ecology and broader environmental considerations.

Santana is aware of these concerns and will address legitimate issues carefully through the consenting process, while also responding to claims which are inaccurate or not supported by the evidence.

Further south, Rua Gold represents a different type of resource opportunity, with most investors still viewing the company primarily through the lens of gold, even though that description increasingly understates what management appears to be building.

The more interesting part of the Rua story may be antimony, a metal that receives far less attention than gold, copper or lithium because most people have never heard of it. Antimony is becoming increasingly important across batteries, semiconductors, flame retardants, industrial manufacturing, photovoltaic equipment and defence applications.

Products ranging from ammunition to night vision equipment rely on antimony in various forms, while China’s dominance of global supply chains has reminded investors and governments how vulnerable supply chains can become when production and processing are concentrated in a small number of jurisdictions.

Rua’s Auld Creek project combines gold with antimony, and management has increasingly positioned the project around this critical minerals opportunity rather than gold production.

However, antimony is interesting because demand is increasingly influenced by defence procurement, supply chain resilience, export restrictions and national security concerns, alongside traditional industrial demand.

As geopolitical competition increases, antimony has moved from being viewed simply as an industrial metal to being recognised as a resource with strategic importance.

Tāiko and Rua are not identical projects. One is focused on mineral sands and value-added separation. The other combines gold with strategic antimony exposure in the Reefton Goldfield.

The common thread is that both projects sit within a changing global environment where supply security, processing capability and resource independence are becoming more valuable.

Over recent decades, New Zealand has become more hesitant about resource development while continuing to discuss the need for higher productivity, stronger exports and greater economic resilience. Those goals need to be reconciled with the reality that modern economies depend on minerals.

Renewable energy systems, advanced manufacturing, defence capability, artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centres, telecommunications networks and batteries all require raw materials.

The real question for New Zealand is not whether resource extraction occurs, but where it occurs, under what standards, and who benefits from it.

Mining should be scrutinised carefully, with high expectations around environmental management, community engagement and rehabilitation.

However, rejecting credible projects simply because they involve mining becomes harder to justify when New Zealand is also seeking higher productivity, stronger exports, regional investment and more resilient supply chains.

It is also becoming increasingly difficult to say no to mining given the benefits it can bring to local communities through jobs, taxes and royalties. Mining has, and will continue to, transform local communities.

The West Coast provides an interesting example. It already has infrastructure, communities with mining experience, established transport networks and a long history of resource development. Projects developed in regions that understand mining often face different challenges from projects attempting to establish entirely new industries.

What stands out is that these projects are no longer concepts on a map.

Santana is progressing through the Fast-Track process. Rua is advancing what may become one of the most strategically important antimony projects in the country. Tāiko has assembled a combination of high grades, shallow mining depths, extensive drilling, existing resource consents and value-added processing that is uncommon within the resource sector.

We continue to believe New Zealand possesses far more strategic value than it often gives itself credit for. Strategic resources, regional capability, existing infrastructure and growing global demand create opportunities that are likely to become increasingly important over the next decade.

Clients interested in learning more about Santana Minerals, Tāiko Critical Minerals or Rua Gold, particularly those comfortable with higher-risk and more speculative investments, are welcome to contact our office.

We would be happy to discuss these companies in greater detail and whether they may be appropriate within the context of your overall portfolio.

Infratil Bond Issue

Infratil has announced a subordinated capital bond issue. The offer is for a 31-year bond, first redeemable after six years. Like similar capital bonds on our exchange (such as CEN090), the bond is priced assuming it will mature after six years on the initial optional redemption date.

The bonds, paying 5.50%, will also be listed on the NZX, allowing investors to exit the investment whenever they would like.

Infratil is to raise $150 million, with the option to accept unlimited oversubscriptions. The bond will carry an investment grade credit rating of BBB-, two notches below Infratil’s own rating (BBB+). This discrepancy is to account for the subordinated nature of the capital bond.

Investors wishing for a FIRM allocation should contact us as soon as possible with their CSN and amount they wish to invest.

Ryman Bond Offer

Ryman Healthcare is also offering a 6-year fixed-rate, senior, secured bonds.

The interest rate will be at least 5.60% per annum, fixed for the full 6-year term.

Ryman is also paying the transaction costs, meaning clients will not pay brokerage. 

Ryman is New Zealand’s largest retirement living and aged care provider, with 47 retirement villages across New Zealand and Australia. It provides homes to more than 15,500 residents and employs around 7,800 staff.

Ryman has been through a major business reset over the past two years. Its latest result showed a meaningful improvement, including its first positive free cash flow result in more than a decade, with revenue increasing to $849 million.

The company has also reduced its debt level to 27.8% (which is the lowest in the sector), has no bank debt maturing until FY31, and is continuing to release cash from asset and land sales. Ryman has indicated that its focus is now on improving aged care earnings, reducing vacant stock, lowering capital expenditure, and strengthening cash flow from its existing villages.

In our view, Ryman is now in a much better position than it was two years ago. The company has moved away from its previous high-growth development model and is now focused on cash flow, debt reduction, and disciplined capital management.

Investors wishing for a FIRM allocation should contact us as soon as possible with their CSN and amount they wish to invest.

Paraparaumu Seminar

The first of our seminars this year will be held at Southwards, Paraparaumu at 10.30am on July 7. Please contact us via email if you would like to attend.

New Financial Advisor Position

We are currently looking to add an experienced Financial Adviser to the Chris Lee & Partners team.

This is a long-term role based in Paraparaumu, working closely with our long-standing clients throughout New Zealand.

If you are interested in learning more, please contact us confidentially at office@chrislee.co.nz

Travel

24 June – Lower Hutt – David Colman

26 June – Napier – Edward Lee

30 June – Christchurch – Chris Lee (FULL)

1 July – Christchurch – Chris Lee (FULL)

Chris Lee & Partners Limited