Taking Stock - 29 October 2026

It was during the mid-period of Key's smile-and-wave tenure in government that it became clear to me that he had no vision, no visible analytical skills, and no strategic plan to exploit what should have been a golden era for NZ.

Wealth had grown during that era, with the sharemarket delivering average annual gains of more than 10% for nearly a decade, while wage increases largely offset inflation. Bar house price rises, national wealth did not accrue. Productivity was weak. Export growth was weak.  Social services were inadequate.

What was disturbingly obvious was that with very few exceptions (English, Joyce are examples), New Zealand had few politicians with a plan to improve life for those who needed help, and no plan to turbocharge those parts of the economy where we had comparative advantage.

We then had a change of government with Ardern and Robertson, pork barrelling to achieve their undisclosed plan, being to lock up the political support of Maori, Pasifika, the unions, the public service, the media and the growing LGBTQ fraternity.

The public journalism fund, co-governance, DEI in public service leadership, and other soft policy sold by a telegenic, empathetic, media-trained leader might have worked had the plan been disclosed and widely debated. The country rejected the opaque plan.

Bear with me, for it was in the lead-up to these examples of political chicanery that it became obvious New Zealand had had no leadership, no plan, for decades.

Every real leader facing widespread challenges begins by analysing the problems, the opportunities, and by devising strategies, then the tactics to implement a plan, after intense disclosure and debate, displaying the plan to all relevant parties.

Faux leaders just smile and wave or covertly seek to lock in ideology.

So it was that during Key's reign I wrote to the politicians, inviting them to implement a strategic planning operation, beginning with a strategic plan based on SWOT analysis.

Such a plan begins with what every real leader would know is the SWOT exercise. SWOT is an acronym for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. Real leaders publish such analysis and are judged by the breadth of their understanding and the prioritising of their strategies.

I took time off to offer the bones of a SWOT exercise and published it, in Taking Stock, evoking some interesting responses.

My goal was to draw out any politicians with the potential to be a real leader.

None appeared.

A summary of a SWOT analysis might have been:

Strengths - Arable land; ample water; low band of temperatures; universal language; high supply of renewable energy (hydro); huge coastline; low level of corruption; distance from global territorial wars; reasonable standards in healthcare and education; a trusted judicial system; high hygiene standards in food production; world leading farmers; ample access to building materials; reliable airline; tourism potential; and strong banking sector.

Weaknesses - Earthquake-prone; erratic ocean weather; continuing link to failed British institutions; shortage of capital; absence of transport fuel; difficult topography; absurd system of electing stable government; large percentage of population permanently damaged by drug dependency; left-leaning education system with little focus on vocation preparation, high percentage levels of complacency; low standards in public media; national tendency to revert to the lowest common denominator; growing level of racial dysfunction; illogical superannuation scheme; low productivity.

Opportunities - Exploit excess of food production; specialise in start-up technology solutions; develop electrification to replace transport fuel dependency; import substitution; refocus of education on technology, science, maths, engineering, medical training, trades; development of savings; exploit renewable energy to attract offshore high users of electricity; adopt AI; implement gene therapy and use analytics and AI to reduce long-term health costs.

Threats - Gross over-regulation (i.e. consenting process for development); illogical tax system (no tax on realised capital gains); low level of business experience in parliament; absence of leadership; low attendance at colleges; deteriorating infrastructure; collapsing birth rate; fiscal imbalances; growing sovereign debt levels; unaffordable housing; poor social housing; insufficient tradesmen; shortage of health professionals; fuel prices; falling currency as a result of constant fiscal deficits and excessive household and Crown debt, leading to inflation and high interest rates; our version of MMP, generating perpetual short-termism; adapting to weather changes.

Obviously these one-liners are not pretending to be comprehensive. Strategic plans are long and detailed.

I raise the subject because I believe it points to a solution as the country faces an election based on a deeply flawed voting system, and a bleak standard of candidates, about whom little is disclosed, barely a handful of them having made significant contributions during their careers, many never having any real management experience, let alone leadership skills.

Here is my suggested step.

Instead of boring gotcha debates that uncover little about the candidate’s suitability for leadership roles, let us instruct our Crown-owned media to set up a leadership suitability evening on live television to give voters a real insight.

Drag in the aspiring leaders to individual rooms.

Give them 30 minutes to prepare a SWOT analysis of New Zealand as they understand it, and require them to display strategies that exploit strengths, overcome weaknesses, take account of opportunities and address threats.

Let them display tactics that will develop the strategy.

Let them display a budget for money and time.

Show us they are capable of analytical thinking and have sensible priorities.

Let us have at least superficial evidence on which to base their case to lead or to sit in any cabinet.

My guess is that their priorities and their headline understanding of the issues would provide the floating voter with some substance on which to choose the best of those on offer.

I wrote my strategic plan in Taking Stock 15 or so years ago, hoping that his advisors might put some substance into Key. My plan failed.

I wrote often to the next government. It is hard to find meat in butterflies.

Might there still be time for electorates to demand some sort of a plan from those who face the ballot this time, so we can judge any evidence of substance?

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

The business section of the NZ Herald, stylised as BusinessDesk, provides evidence that it is possible to improve media standards.

Business Desk derived from the NZ Herald's purchase of a business reporting website founded by Patrick Smellie and a colleague in 2008.

With the financial and moral support of the acclaimed sharebroker turned fund manager (the late) Brian Gaynor, Smellie started out with a business content newswire which grew into a subscription business service.

Gradually he refreshed the staff until he had assembled a group of journalists, some of whom were clearly interested in real business journalism, and were motivated to learn

Smellie had come through an unusual route to ownership of this service, having been a competent journalist before gaining real business experience with a leading public company, where he mixed with decision-makers.

This experience made him unusual, not quite unique, but when included with time in Parliament, equipped him for a leadership role in journalism.

Patrick's father was a High Court Judge, of good intellect, best known for his courageous decision to compel the Crown to fully reimburse debenture investors in Allan Hawkins' cynically constructed, ultimately bankrupt, Equiticorp empire.

Equiticorp collapsed after a deal it did with the Crown in 1987, buying NZ Steel with a mechanism that was clearly illegal, and led to Treasury being seen to have been so keen to sell NZ Steel that it accepted a sales process it knew was illegal.

Justice Smellie many years later instructed the Crown to repay some $300 million (plus), the cash offsetting the loss that had ultimately fallen on Equiticorp's debenture investors.

Patrick Smellie, with an unmatched (in NZ) journalist/ commercial /political background, formed his business subscription service and sold it to the NZ Herald, whose business section had lacked any credibility for many years.

The NZ Herald stylised the service as BusinessDesk and has succeeded in persuading enough people to subscribe for the daily business news to restore the NZ Herald's credibility.

It now sits with the National Business Review as our two adult business news providers, both well below the standard available in Australia, but both of value to NZ business.

Recently BusinessDesk invited several business people to pen an article under the heading One Big Idea.

It failed to persuade most of our top tier of leaders to contribute, but the concept was innovative and did produce some readable responses, one of the best from the woman who runs the highly regarded BECA Organisation.

Her "big idea" was to reduce our dependency on transport fuels by incentivising the use of electric vehicles.

Our biggest imports in order, were a year ago:

1. Mechanical machinery and equipment NZ$12 billion

2. Fossil fuels $10 billion

3. Vehicles, parts and accessories $9 billion

4. Electrical equipment (smartphones etc) $8 billion

5. Optical and medical equipment $3 billion

6. Plastics $2.5 billion

7. Pharmaceuticals $2.3 billion

Given the recent fuel cost increases (60%) I expect fossil fuels are now our biggest single import.

Her idea is far from unique but does raise the question of by how much NZ would benefit by increasing the use of electrification in our transport sector.

The NZ Herald's BusinessDesk had a good idea when it approached some business people, all of whom would be familiar with SWOT analysis, to display their thoughts to the public.

We will never succeed in luring our best business leaders into politics. As Chris Luxon will have observed, our country's maturity and willingness to adopt sane long-term strategies is still in its teenage stage, so the contributions of our most experienced and successful leaders will be spartan. They will prefer to hand pick their colleagues, as I would.

But the NZ Herald and BusinessDesk might help us advance towards a more adult acceptance of the need for long-term strategy if it can persuade our real business giants to offer their thinking and their solutions to the public.

Couple those offerings to the best of our scientists, engineers, industrialists, medical people, farmers and any outstanding educationalists, and extract from them regular think pieces under the banner "In Search of Excellence" and watch the trajectory of our country's progress.

Just saying!

New Issues

Contact Energy is expected to issue a new subordinated capital bond on 2 November. We expect the bond to have a term of around 6 years, with a possible interest rate of around 5.75% per annum. Clients will not be charged brokerage for this issue as Contact is paying the transaction costs.

Auckland Airport is also expected to issue a 5-year senior bond issue next week, with a possible interest rate of around 5.00% per annum. Auckland Airport will not be paying the transaction costs for this offer, so clients will be charged brokerage.

Investors who are interested in these potential bonds are welcome to contact us with their CSN and an indication of the amount they may wish to invest.

Travel

Our advisors will be in the following cities next month:

16 November – Wellington – Gavin Parkes

17 November – Christchurch - Chris Lee

18 November (am) – Christchurch – Chris Lee

18 November (pm) – Ashburton – Chris Lee

19 November – Timaru – Chris Lee

Investors who would like an appointment to meet are welcome to contact us.

Chris Lee